Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Plunges 5% As Trump Cancels Iran Strikes

• Trump canceled Iran strikes and claimed deal terms were approved by 'all parties' though Iran was not listed and has not commented, while naval blockade remains until finalization
• WTI oil dropped 5.85% testing support at $87, with potential to fall to $81-$81.50 if current levels break, while Brent declined 5.40% toward $90
• UAE-Iran officials held face-to-face meetings signaling regional movement toward peace, particularly significant as UAE was previously the most hawkish after suffering Iranian strikes

Market Summary: Energy Commodities Decline on Iran Deal Progress

Key Developments:

President Trump unexpectedly canceled planned military strikes against Iran on June 11, 2026, triggering sharp declines across energy markets. Trump announced that deal discussions had been "approved by all parties involved," though Iran was notably absent from his list. A U.S. naval blockade remains in place until finalization. Reports confirm UAE and Iran officials held face-to-face meetings, signaling regional momentum toward peace.

Price Movements:

• WTI Oil: Plunged 5.85%, testing support at $87.00 with potential downside targets at $85.00-$85.50 and $81.00-$81.50
• Brent Oil: Dropped 5.40%, pulling back toward $90.00 after breaking through $91.00-$91.50 support, with next support at $86.00-$86.50
• Natural Gas: Declined 3.23%, pressured by bearish inventory data independent of geopolitical developments

Fundamental Factors:

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report showed working gas inventories increased by 108 Bcf, exceeding the 101 Bcf analyst estimate. Current stocks stand 5 Bcf below last year but 151 Bcf above the five-year average. Natural gas is testing critical support at $3.00-$3.05, with potential downside to $2.75-$2.80.

Market Implications:

Traders are pricing in significantly reduced Middle East risk premium as peace negotiations advance. The potential resolution of U.S.-Iran tensions could substantially impact global oil supply dynamics, particularly involving Iran's Kharg Island oil hub. Technical indicators suggest further downside remains possible across energy commodities if diplomatic progress continues.