Just a matter of time before the Fed hikes, says fmr. Trump economist

• May CPI data is 'not as bad as feared' but still shows prices above the Fed's target.
• The Fed is expected to adopt a tightening bias and hike rates by year-end, as historical data suggests inflation doesn't recede without rate increases.
• The Iran war is a 'self-induced supply shock' exacerbating inflation, particularly in energy and related commodities, shifting the economic outlook significantly.

Joseph LaVorgna discusses May CPI data, noting it's 'not as bad as feared' but still indicates prices are above the Fed's target. He anticipates the Fed will adopt a tightening bias and hike rates by year-end, despite potential pushback from Chair Warsh. The ongoing Iran war is highlighted as a significant supply shock, impacting energy prices and making disinflation challenging, contrasting with the minimal impact of past tariffs.