US jet fuel output hits record as Iran war doubled prices in March, EIA says

Reuters | June 08, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
Bullish 84% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • U.S. jet fuel output surpassed 2 million barrels per day for the first time in the week ended May 1, driven by above-average refinery runs and strategic shifts to increase aviation fuel yield
  • Jet fuel prices averaged $3.91 per gallon on the U.S. Gulf Coast from March through May, approximately double the price at the start of the year, with similar price increases at major global trading hubs
  • U.S. jet fuel exports reached record highs in April and May, while domestic inventories stood at 45 million barrels as of May 29, which is 7% above the five-year average

AI Summary

Summary: US Jet Fuel Output Hits Record on Iran Conflict

Key Developments:

U.S. jet fuel production reached unprecedented levels after Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during its conflict with the U.S. and Israel caused prices to double in March, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Production Figures:

  • U.S. jet fuel output surpassed 2 million barrels per day for the first time on record in the four-week average ending May 1
  • Production increases began after U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran commenced February 28
  • Higher output reflects above-average refinery runs and strategic shifts to boost aviation fuel yields

Price Impact:

  • U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel spot prices averaged $3.91 per gallon from March-May, approximately double early-year levels
  • Global trading hubs experienced similar price doubling during the same period

Trade and Inventory:

  • U.S. jet fuel exports hit record highs in April and May, based on Customs data
  • Domestic inventories stood at 45 million barrels as of May 29, 7% above the five-year average
  • Increased exports primarily target Europe and Asia, regions previously dependent on Middle Eastern supplies via the Strait of Hormuz

Market Implications:

The conflict-driven supply disruption has positioned the U.S. as a critical alternative supplier for global jet fuel markets. Strong domestic inventory levels support continued export capacity, though the EIA warns the West Coast may need to increase inventory draws if import declines persist.

Sectors Affected: Energy, aviation, refining, international trade

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 85%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 84%