OPEC+ Poised for Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure, Sources Say

• Seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman) will raise output targets by 188,000 bpd in July, totaling nearly 600,000 bpd in increases from April to June
• The UAE has exited OPEC after nearly 60 years due to the crisis, forcing adjustments to monthly quota increases from 206,000 bpd to 188,000 bpd
• Despite quota increases, actual OPEC+ production plunged 22% (9.58 million bpd) between February and April due to export cuts by Gulf members unable to ship through Hormuz

OPEC+ Summary

Key Development: OPEC+ is set to approve a fourth consecutive monthly increase in oil output targets of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in July, according to three sources. However, most members remain unable to meet these targets due to ongoing supply disruptions.

Critical Context: An ongoing U.S. war has blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz since late February, creating what's described as "the world's biggest ever supply crisis." Key producers including Saudi Arabia have been unable to fully supply customers. The crisis intensified when the United Arab Emirates exited OPEC after nearly 60 years of membership.

Production Figures:

• Seven core OPEC+ members increased quotas by nearly 600,000 bpd from April to June
• Actual production collapsed to 33.19 million bpd in April, down from 42.77 million bpd in February
• Previous monthly increases were 206,000 bpd in April and May before adjustment to 188,000 bpd in June

Meeting Details: Seven of 21 OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman—will meet Sunday to finalize the quota increase. A full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is also scheduled but expected to maintain current policy unchanged.

Market Implications: The quota increases appear largely symbolic given the severe supply constraints caused by the Hormuz closure. The disconnect between rising targets and falling actual production underscores the group's inability to influence markets amid geopolitical disruptions. Gulf producers remain particularly affected by export limitations.