100 days of the Iran war: How global markets and the economy have been affected, in charts

• U.S. equity markets have been resilient, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs driven by AI optimism, while emerging markets like South Korea (down 13%) and China's Shanghai Composite (down 5.6%) have declined significantly
• Government bond yields surged across major economies, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since before the Financial Crisis as investors price in higher inflation and hawkish monetary policy
• Oil supply constraints from the Strait of Hormuz blockade have kept Brent crude 36% and WTI crude 50% above pre-war prices, despite increased U.S. exports and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases helping to moderate price rallies

Summary: 100 Days of Iran War - Market and Economic Impact

Key Timeline & Events:

The conflict began February 28, 2026, following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4. Multiple ceasefires have been negotiated but remain fragile, with peace talks currently stalled as of early June 2026.

Equity Markets:

Global stock performance has been mixed. U.S. markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, driven by AI optimism. The Nasdaq Composite led gains at +38.4%, followed by TAIEX (+30.2%). However, Middle Eastern and some European markets declined, with South Korea's Kospi down 13% and Dubai's index falling 9.8%. Analysts attribute U.S. strength to oil self-sufficiency and AI sector enthusiasm, particularly in semiconductor and compute infrastructure companies.

Bond Markets:

Government bond yields surged across major economies as investors priced in higher inflation and hawkish monetary policy. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since before the 2008 Financial Crisis. The U.K. saw yields rise 60.4 basis points, followed by Japan (+55.9 bps) and the U.S. (+50.3 bps).

Energy Markets:

Brent crude prices remain 36% above pre-war levels, while WTI is up nearly 50%, though both have retreated from wartime peaks of $118.35. The Strait of Hormuz closure created severe supply constraints. U.S. crude exports increased significantly as importers sought alternative suppliers. Analysts warn if inventories reach critical levels in June, prices could breach $100 again.

Inflation:

U.S. April CPI reached 3.8% annually, the highest in three years, driven primarily by energy costs. Similar inflation acceleration occurred across G7 and OECD nations, prompting government interventions in some countries.