Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Will Payrolls Extend the Chip Selloff or Spark a Rally?

• Broadcom's failure to beat earnings expectations triggered broad semiconductor sector selling, with the Nasdaq heading for a weekly decline while the S&P 500 targets its longest winning streak since 1985
• Nonfarm Payrolls estimates vary dramatically from 20,000 (Vanguard) to 150,000 (consensus), with a weak print potentially reviving rate-cut expectations and supporting tech stocks
• Technical analysis shows Nasdaq futures at risk of a 'closing price reversal top' pattern, with downside targets of 29,735-29,482 and potential for a 2-3 week correction if confirmed

Market Summary: Nasdaq Under Pressure as Chip Selloff Intensifies Ahead of Jobs Data

Key Market Movements:

The Nasdaq 100 faces headwinds as June E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures dropped over 1% before Friday's opening, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% and Dow futures posted modest gains. Despite broader market strength—with the S&P 500 tracking toward its tenth consecutive weekly gain (the longest streak since 1985)—the Nasdaq is positioned for a weekly decline.

Semiconductor Sector Turmoil:

Broadcom (AVGO) sparked a two-day chip sector selloff, extending Thursday's 12% decline. The weakness followed the company's earnings report, which met but didn't exceed expectations, triggering heavy profit-taking across AI and semiconductor stocks. Analysts maintain the long-term AI infrastructure story remains intact, but near-term positioning was overcrowded.

Critical Nonfarm Payrolls Report:

Friday's May employment data carries heightened significance, with economist estimates ranging widely from 20,000 (Vanguard) to 60,000 (Goldman Sachs) new jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%. A weak print would revive rate-cut expectations, benefiting growth stocks and the Nasdaq. Conversely, a strong number would support the hawkish Fed narrative and keep pressure on technology shares.

Technical Outlook:

The June Nasdaq-100 futures trading below the 30,405.25 level positions the index for a potential bearish reversal pattern, with downside targets at 29,735.50 to 29,482.25 and possible 2-3 week correction if confirmed.

Other Notable Movers:

Lululemon (LULU) dropped after cutting full-year guidance. Bitcoin fell below $63,000, pressuring crypto-related stocks including Coinbase and Robinhood. ServiceTitan surged on raised outlook, while DocuSign declined on weak revenue guidance.