Iranian Oil Exports Reach Six-Year Low

• Exports collapsed by over 80% from April levels, marking the lowest volume since the Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign in 2019-2020
• Approximately 67 million barrels of Iranian oil are stranded inside the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, with total floating storage declining from 190 million barrels in late April
• Iran could run out of oil available to ship to China within two months if the blockade persists, according to Kpler analysts, with Chinese imports already falling to 1.10 million bpd in May

Summary

Iranian Oil Exports Plunge to Six-Year Low Amid U.S. Naval Blockade

Iranian crude oil and condensate exports collapsed to their lowest level since 2019-2020, falling to approximately 209,000-260,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, according to shipping data from Vortexa and Kpler. This represents a dramatic decline from 1.34 million bpd in April and 1.9 million bpd in March.

Key Driver: The sharp drop follows a U.S. naval blockade initiated on April 13, which has effectively strangled Iranian exports. The blockade comes as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already created a supply crunch by cutting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE.

Critical Supply Concerns: Approximately 67 million barrels of Iranian crude remain stranded inside the Mideast Gulf and Gulf of Oman, with total floating storage declining from 190 million barrels in late April to 147 million barrels currently. Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi warns that if the blockade persists for another two months, Iran could effectively run out of available oil to ship to China, its primary buyer.

China Impact: Chinese imports of Iranian crude fell to 1.10 million bpd in May, the lowest level since January 2025.

Market Context: The export collapse marks Iran's weakest performance since the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign during 2019-2020. Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman cited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and widespread reluctance from vessel owners, operators, insurers, and counterparties to risk exposure in the current security environment as primary factors behind the decline.