Private infra, real estate capital to play larger financing role in AI data center boom, Goldman says

• Goldman Sachs increased its capex forecast for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet from $4.5 trillion to $5.3 trillion for FY 2025-2030
• Private infrastructure market grew at an annualized rate of 11.5% from 2021-2024, with Goldman expecting acceleration to 16-17% growth rates similar to 2012-2021
• Infrastructure assets under management are projected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030, driven by structured income generation and inflation-protection characteristics

Summary

Key Development:

Goldman Sachs projects that private infrastructure and real estate capital will increasingly finance the AI-driven data center expansion, moving beyond traditional funding methods.

Major Financial Projections:

• Goldman raised its combined capital expenditure forecast for the four largest hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet) to $5.3 trillion for fiscal years 2025-2030, up from a previous estimate of $4.5 trillion.
• Private infrastructure assets under management (AUM) are expected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030.

Market Growth Trends:

• Private infrastructure market grew at an annualized rate of approximately 11.5% from 2021-2024.
• Goldman anticipates this growth rate will accelerate to 16%-17% annually, matching the pace seen during 2012-2021.

Investment Thesis:

The brokerage notes that boundaries between private infrastructure and real estate are blurring as data center projects span multiple categories including land, power, building, and equipment. Private infrastructure's structured income generation and inflation-protection characteristics position it favorably for growth.

Funding Strategy:

Companies are expected to access public, securitized, and private markets to meet massive financing requirements. Goldman emphasizes that infrastructure sits at the "epicenter of multiple structural tailwinds" that will drive growth and provide additional financing capacity.

Sector Implications:

This shift signals a fundamental transformation in how Big Tech finances AI infrastructure, opening significant opportunities for private capital markets and alternative investment vehicles while reducing reliance on traditional corporate financing methods.