US crude stocks, product inventories likely fell last week

• Crude stocks stood at 441.7 million barrels as of May 22, following a 3.3 million barrel draw the previous week
• The forecasted 4 million barrel crude decline reflects continued inventory drawdowns, with analysts' estimates ranging from 2.5 to 7.6 million barrels
• Refinery utilization is expected to edge up from 94.5% capacity, indicating steady processing demand ahead of the summer driving season

US Crude and Product Inventories Expected to Decline

Key Forecasts

A Reuters poll of nine analysts projects U.S. crude oil inventories fell by approximately 4 million barrels during the week ended May 29. Additionally, gasoline stockpiles are expected to have decreased by 500,000 barrels, while distillate inventories (diesel and heating oil) likely declined by 300,000 barrels.

Current Inventory Levels

The previous week (ended May 22) saw crude inventories drop 3.3 million barrels to 441.7 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This drawdown was slightly below the anticipated 4.1 million-barrel decline. Gasoline stocks stood at 211.6 million barrels, while distillates totaled 100.8 million barrels.

Refinery Activity

Refinery utilization rates are forecast to increase by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week's 94.5% of total capacity, indicating continued strong processing activity.

Market Context

The consistent inventory draws across crude and refined products suggest robust demand and healthy market fundamentals. Year-over-year comparisons show a notable shift: crude inventories fell 4.3 million barrels during the same week last year, while gasoline and distillate stocks actually increased by 5.2 million and 4.2 million barrels respectively in 2025.

Reporting Schedule

Official data will be released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EDT and the EIA on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Analyst estimates varied considerably, with crude draw forecasts ranging from 2.5 million to 7.6 million barrels across the nine surveyed organizations.