Top CEOs brace for downturn, warn US economy will worsen in next 6 months

• The CEO confidence index dropped below the critical 50 threshold to 47 in Q2 from 59 in Q1, with 47% of CEOs saying the economy is worse than six months ago (up from just 8% previously)
• Corporate leaders are implementing belt-tightening measures: 31% plan workforce reductions over the next six months, now exceeding the 28% planning to expand hiring, while wage increases are concentrating in the 3-4% range
• Top business risks intensified, with nearly two-thirds of CEOs ranking cybersecurity as a primary concern, alongside geopolitical tensions, AI/technology risks, supply chain disruptions, and energy-related challenges

Summary: CEO Confidence Plunges as Economic Outlook Darkens

Key Survey Results:

The Conference Board's Q2 2025 CEO Confidence Index plummeted to 47 from 59 in Q1, marking a sharp reversal into negative territory (below 50 indicates more negative than positive outlooks). The survey polled 141 CEOs from major U.S. corporations.

Economic Assessment:

• Only 15% of CEOs view the economy as better than six months ago, down from 39% in Q1
• 47% say conditions have worsened, up dramatically from 8% last quarter
• 40% expect further deterioration over the next six months, compared to 13% previously

Employment and Compensation:

Corporate America is signaling belt-tightening measures. Thirty-one percent of CEOs plan workforce reductions over the next six months, now exceeding the 28% planning expansion. Planned wage increases are concentrating in the 3-4% range, and 53% report hiring difficulties in some areas.

Economic Context:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q4 GDP growth of 0.5% (annualized), below economist expectations of 0.7%. Full-year 2025 GDP reached 2.1%, but analysts warn 2026 appears "even less favorable."

Top Business Risks:

• Cybersecurity concerns lead, with nearly two-thirds ranking it a top risk
• Geopolitical tensions and AI/new technology remain major concerns
• Supply chain and energy risks have increased in importance

Notable Commentary:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon described himself as "cautiously pessimistic" despite record market highs, highlighting the disconnect between equity performance and CEO sentiment about underlying economic conditions.