Stocks to watch as Trump's new tariffs spell more uncertainty

• Retailers like Best Buy, Nike, Ralph Lauren, and Target expected to benefit as new tariffs are 4% lower than earlier rates, particularly for consumer electronics, toys, and sports equipment
• Domestic packaging and lumber companies including Smurfit WestRock (down 7%) and International Paper (down 6%) face competitive pressure as their pricing advantage over imports diminishes
• Emerging markets, especially China, stand to benefit with tariff rates expected to drop to 24-27% from 32%, while Southeast Asia and India may see reductions of 4-5% and to 14% respectively

Market Summary: Trump Tariffs Create Winners and Losers Across Sectors

Key Development:

President Trump announced a new 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling on his broader tariff program, creating significant market volatility and sector-specific impacts.

Winners:

*Retail/Consumer:* Major retailers including Best Buy, Target, Ralph Lauren, Nike, and Elf Beauty are expected to benefit from reduced tariffs. Toys, sports equipment, and games sectors may gain as the new 15% levy is 4% lower than previous rates, according to Morgan Stanley.

*E-Commerce:* Etsy appears most insulated from tariff volatility due to diversification across trade routes, with 50% of its buyer/seller network outside the U.S. Chewy and Wayfair are also expected to weather changes well, having already adapted to earlier tariffs.

*Emerging Markets:* China stands to benefit significantly, with analysts projecting tariff rates declining to 24-27% from 32%. Hong Kong's benchmark index closed 2.5% higher Monday, with Alibaba and Tencent surging. Southeast Asian tariffs expected to drop 4-5%, while India's rates may fall to 14%.

Losers:

*Lumber/Packaging:* Domestic producers including Clearwater Paper, Rayonier, Sylvamo, and Smurfit WestRock face increased competition from cheaper imports. Smurfit and International Paper dropped 7% and 6%, respectively, on Monday.

*Autos:* Ford and GM remain vulnerable as most auto tariffs fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, remaining unaffected by the Supreme Court ruling.

*Metals:* Steel Dynamics, Alcoa, and Freeport-McMoran see no relief as Section 232 tariffs remain intact.

Market Implications:

The tariff reshuffling creates a complex landscape favoring consumer-facing companies and emerging markets while pressuring domestic manufacturing sectors dependent on import protection.