Current Situation of International Oil Companies in Venezuela
Key Points
- Chevron operates four joint ventures with PDVSA producing 240,000-250,000 bpd and exported up to 150,000 bpd to the U.S. in late 2025, with potential to grow production 50% short-term
- European companies face massive unpaid debts: Repsol is owed 5 billion euros, Eni is owed $3 billion by end-2025, and ConocoPhillips continues pursuing $12 billion in expropriation claims
- Gas projects remain stalled despite new licenses, with Shell's Dragon field and BP's Manakin-Cocuina awaiting development while Chinese state companies expand presence despite U.S. concerns about geopolitical rivals
AI Summary
Summary: International Oil Companies in Venezuela
Following the easing of U.S. sanctions in February 2026 after President Maduro's departure in January, several international oil companies are repositioning in Venezuela's oil sector, though challenges from past expropriations remain.
Key Company Updates:
Chevron maintains the strongest presence through four joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA, currently producing 240,000-250,000 bpd of heavy crude. The company exported 150,000 bpd to the U.S. Gulf Coast in November, dropping to 100,000 bpd in December. Chevron plans to increase gross production by 50% short-term and can process 100,000 bpd at its refineries (currently processing 50,000 bpd).
BP and Shell are focused on cross-border gas projects. BP's Manakin-Cocuina field (with Trinidad) and Shell's Dragon field face regulatory hurdles, though Shell CEO expects Dragon operational within three years.
Eni and Repsol face significant debt issues. Eni is owed approximately $3 billion by Venezuela as of end-2025, up from $2.3 billion in June 2025. Repsol is owed €5 billion ($5.37 billion) in commercial debt, having written down €3.6 billion over recent years.
ConocoPhillips continues pursuing $12 billion in compensation from Chavez-era expropriations, having collected $794 million to date.
ExxonMobil, despite having no current presence and being owed $984.5 million from 2007 expropriations, is reportedly in discussions with Venezuela. CEO Darren Woods previously called Venezuela "uninvestable without major reforms."
Chinese companies (CNPC, Sinopec, China Concord) remain major investors, though U.S. officials indicated geopolitical rivals are less welcome.
Market Implications: Sanctions relief opens opportunities, but legacy debt issues and infrastructure challenges persist, creating cautious optimism for production growth.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 75% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 80% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 76% |