Economic Data Weekly Outlook: FOMC Minutes, GDP, PCE, PMIs, UMich

• Q4 GDP expected to show material deceleration to 3.0% annualized growth from Q3's 4.4%, though trade distortions may complicate headline readings
• Q4 PCE inflation data anticipated to show potentially warm year-end print, providing clearest inflation view before January data; economists expect gradual easing once tariff effects are lapped
• Bond market signals sluggish growth concerns as 2-year Treasury yields hit cycle lows, while international stocks post best performance relative to S&P 500 since at least 1995

Economic Data Weekly Outlook Summary

Key Events:

A critical week of macroeconomic data releases looms despite the government shutdown delaying January retail sales figures. Markets face several pivotal reports that could reshape growth and inflation narratives heading into March.

Major Data Releases:

• FOMC Minutes (released mid-week): May provide insights into Fed policy trajectory, though the central bank likely remains on hold through Chair Powell's tenure
• Q4 GDP (Friday, 8:30 AM ET): Expected at 3.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized growth, down from Q3's 4.4% pace
• Q4 PCE Inflation Data (Friday): Critical inflation gauge for October-December period; expectations suggest potentially elevated year-end print
• S&P Global Flash PMIs (Friday, 9:45 AM ET): February manufacturing data to test January's surprisingly strong ISM results
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday): Final February reading follows initially upbeat preliminary report

Market Context:

International equities are significantly outperforming U.S. stocks in 2026, with the MSCI ACWX posting its best relative return versus the S&P 500 since at least 1995. Domestic markets show rotation into SMID caps, defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Real Estate), and late-cycle plays (Energy, Materials)—a combination raising concerns among technicians.

The 2-year Treasury yield fell to cycle lows (August-September 2022 levels), suggesting bond markets anticipate sluggish growth despite elevated GDP expectations. Software and high-margin tech stocks face pressure from AI's deflationary impact.

Corporate Event: Walmart earnings (February 18) could provide consumer spending insights and AI automation updates under new CEO John Furner.