Cocoa stocks from main harvest pile up in Ivory Coast warehouses

Reuters | February 16, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
Bearish 81% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Global cocoa prices fell to two-year lows due to declining demand, making Ivory Coast cocoa (world's largest producer) too expensive for exporters at the guaranteed farmgate price
  • The regulator launched a January program to buy 100,000 metric tons of held cocoa and accelerated purchases in February due to concerns about declining quality in poor storage conditions
  • Some buyers are illegally offering farmers 1,500-1,800 CFA francs per kg (46-64% of the regulated price), which desperate farmers accept due to lack of resources and mounting debts

AI Summary

Summary: Ivory Coast Cocoa Crisis

Key Issue: Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, faces a severe supply chain crisis as unsold cocoa beans pile up in warehouses due to exporters refusing to purchase at government-mandated prices.

Main Facts:

  • Government-set farmgate price: 2,800 CFA francs ($5.09) per kg for the 2025/26 crop season
  • Global cocoa prices have fallen to their lowest levels in over two years due to declining demand
  • Exporters claim the fixed price makes Ivory Coast cocoa uncompetitive in the current market
  • The Coffee and Cocoa Council regulator launched an emergency program in January to purchase 100,000 metric tons of unsold beans
  • Some buyers are illegally offering farmers as low as 1,500-1,800 CFA francs per kg

Key Players:

  • Ivory Coast government and Coffee and Cocoa Council (regulator)
  • Local cooperatives and exporters
  • Individual cocoa farmers

Market Impact:

Sekou Dagnogo's cooperative in Duekoue has warehouses stacked to capacity with unsold inventory. Cooperatives cannot pay farmers, creating mounting debts throughout the supply chain. Farmer Frederic Kouassi Kouassi reports being forced to accept below-regulated prices due to financial pressure, with concerns about storage capacity before the April-September mid-crop season begins.

Critical Concerns:

  • Quality deterioration of beans stored in poor conditions
  • Financial strain on entire supply chain from farmers to cooperatives
  • Potential long-term damage to Ivory Coast's position as the world's top cocoa producer
  • Regulatory intervention may prove insufficient to resolve the pricing mismatch between fixed domestic rates and falling global markets

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 81%