Big Picture on CPI & What it Means for the Fed

• January's year-over-year core CPI at 2.5% is the lowest of the cycle, but monthly core inflation shows recent upticks.
• The bond market reacted positively, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping to 4.06%, its lowest since early December.
• The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy until at least summer, awaiting further economic data before considering rate cuts.

The discussion analyzes the January CPI report, noting a positive year-over-year core inflation at 2.5% but underlying short-term pressures. Speakers agree the Fed will likely remain on hold until summer, requiring more consistent data for rate cuts, despite bond market reactions to current data.