OPEC+ Considers Increasing Oil Production from April, Sources Reveal

• The eight OPEC+ members previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day (3% of global demand) from April through December 2025, then froze further increases for January-March 2026
• Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, close to a six-month high of $71.89 reached in January, defying earlier expectations of a supply glut suppressing prices this year
• No final decision has been made, and discussions will continue ahead of the March 1 meeting involving Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman

OPEC+ Summary: Production Increase Expected from April 2026

Key Development: OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil production increases from April 2026, according to three OPEC+ sources, as the group prepares for peak summer demand amid strengthening prices.

Critical Meeting: Eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—will convene on March 1 to make a final decision. Six sources total indicated expectations for production resumption, though no formal decision has been reached.

Production Context: The eight members previously increased production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (roughly 3% of global demand) from April through December 2025. They subsequently paused further increases for Q1 2026 (January-March) due to seasonally weaker consumption patterns.

Market Dynamics:

• Brent crude currently trading near $68 per barrel, approaching its six-month high of $71.89 reached in January
• Prices remain elevated despite earlier speculation of a supply glut
• Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are providing price support
• Russia's Novak forecasts increased demand beginning March-April

Strategic Implications: The planned resumption would enable OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reclaim market share lost during production cuts. The timing targets peak summer demand season when consumption typically strengthens.

Market Outlook: The production increase decision balances several factors: seasonal demand patterns, geopolitical risks supporting prices, and member countries' desire to restore output levels. Discussions will continue ahead of the March 1 meeting, with final deliberations ongoing among participating nations.