Here Is Where Gold Goes Next

• Gold fell more than 12% over two trading days for only the second time in 30 years; historical analysis shows recoveries are measured, with average rebounds adding roughly 8% over 360-day periods after similar drops
• The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. deficit will reach $3 trillion (6.7% of GDP) by 2036, with debt-to-GDP crossing 100% in 2026 and interest costs exceeding a quarter of all tax revenue
• Analyst recommends holding precious metals as portfolio anchors against fiscal excess and inflation, not for speculative gains, while highlighting POET Technologies as a complementary AI infrastructure play in optical interconnect technology

Market Summary: Gold Outlook and Investment Implications

Gold Price Action and Forward Outlook

Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility since mid-January, exhibiting "crypto-like" price swings unusual for the traditionally stable asset. Analysis by Tom Yeung reveals that gold falling more than 12% over two trading days has occurred just once in the past 30 years.

Historical data shows modest near-term recovery patterns: after similar 12%+ drops over 30-day periods since 1998, gold typically rebounds gradually over 120 days. However, extending to 360-day periods, gold historically regains prior highs and adds approximately 8% additional gains.

Investment Recommendation: Hold existing precious metals positions without panic selling or aggressive buying during volatility.

Fiscal Concerns Support Gold Thesis

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects alarming U.S. fiscal deterioration:

• Budget deficit to exceed $3 trillion annually by 2036 (6.7% of GDP)
• Debt-to-GDP ratio will cross 100% in 2026 and surpass post-WWII records by 2030
• Interest costs will consume over 25% of tax revenues, up from current levels
• CBO Director confirms the fiscal trajectory is "not sustainable"

These conditions reinforce gold's role as a portfolio hedge against currency devaluation and fiscal instability.

Alternative Opportunity: POET Technologies

Analyst Jonathan Rose highlights POET Technologies Inc. as a high-risk AI infrastructure play. The company develops optical interconnect technology for data centers, addressing power and heat constraints in AI applications. Trading under $1 billion valuation, POET benefits from validation through Marvell Technology's multibillion-dollar acquisition of partner Celestial AI.

Additional Note

Marc Chaikin, creator of Chaikin Money Flow indicator, warns investors about market evolution and the need for better stock identification tools in changing market conditions.