Instacart Predicts Strong Quarter with Boost from Essentials Demand and Ad Sales

• Q1 GTV forecast of $10.13-$10.28 billion exceeds analyst estimates of $9.95 billion, implying 11-13% year-over-year growth; adjusted EBITDA guidance of $280-$290 million tops expectations of $279.5 million
• Q4 GTV rose 14% to $9.85 billion (vs. $9.5 billion estimate) with orders climbing 16%, outpacing prior year's 11% growth; advertising revenue increased 10% to $294 million
• Company faces intensifying competition from Amazon's sub-30-minute delivery service and Kroger's expanded partnership with Uber Eats, which could erode market share

Summary

Instacart Reports Strong Q4 and Issues Optimistic Q1 Forecast

Instacart (Maplebear) exceeded fourth-quarter expectations and provided above-consensus guidance for Q1, driven by robust demand for essential goods and expanding advertising revenue.

Key Financial Metrics:

• Q4 Results: Gross transaction value (GTV) rose 14% year-over-year to $9.85 billion, beating estimates of $9.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $303 million, surpassing the $292.2 million forecast.
• Q1 Forecast: GTV expected between $10.13-$10.28 billion (implying 11-13% YoY growth), above the $9.95 billion analyst estimate. Adjusted EBITDA projected at $280-$290 million versus expectations of $279.5 million.
• Order Growth: Orders increased 16% in Q4, accelerating from 11% growth a year earlier.
• Advertising Revenue: The segment generated over $1 billion in 2025, with Q4 advertising revenue up 10% to $294 million. Active brand partnerships grew to approximately 9,000, up 2,000 year-over-year.

Business Drivers:

Inflation-conscious consumers are driving demand for cheaper essentials like produce, dairy, and pantry staples through Instacart's rapid delivery platform. The company successfully retained budget-focused shoppers seeking convenience and value.

Market Implications:

Despite strong performance, Instacart faces intensifying competition. Amazon launched a sub-30-minute delivery service, while Kroger expanded its partnership with Uber Eats in January, potentially threatening Instacart's market share. The company recently integrated with OpenAI's ChatGPT in December, signaling efforts to maintain competitive positioning through innovation.