Prediction markets head into basketball season on a high from Super Bowl

• Kalshi recorded over $100 million in trading on culture markets like 'What Bad Bunny was going to perform' during Super Bowl week, demonstrating diverse betting interest beyond traditional sports outcomes
• Robinhood reported 300% growth in event contract revenue, with 12 billion contracts traded in 2025 and 4 billion already in 2026, making it the company's fastest-growing business
• Traditional sportsbook leaders FanDuel (4.2 million users) and DraftKings (5 million users) still dominate but see prediction markets as complementary, particularly in states without legalized sports wagering

Prediction Markets Surge After Super Bowl, Eye Major Sports Calendar

Summary

Prediction markets experienced explosive growth during the Super Bowl and are positioned for continued expansion through upcoming major sporting events in 2026. Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, saw record downloads during Super Bowl week—up 1,544% year-over-year—with daily active users surging over 1,100% to nearly 2 million on game day, according to Sensor Tower data.

Key Performance Metrics:

• Kalshi reported 2,700% increase in Super Bowl trading volume
• Pop culture markets reached $100 million in trading, including contracts on Bad Bunny's performance
• Polymarket saw 264% growth to 59,000 daily active users
• BetMGM reached 680,000 daily active users (81% growth)

Company Developments:

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev revealed that NBA contracts surpassed NFL trading activity in January, signaling sustained momentum beyond football. The company reported 300% growth in "other revenue" (primarily event contracts) and processed 12 billion event contracts in 2025, with 4 billion already completed in early 2026—representing the "fastest growing business in company's history."

Market Outlook:

Upcoming sporting events expected to drive volume include the Winter Olympics (through Feb. 22), NBA All-Star Weekend, NCAA March Madness (starting March 15), and the World Cup (104 games beginning mid-June). The NCAA tournament historically generates more gambling revenue than the Super Bowl.

Traditional sportsbook leaders DraftKings (5 million daily users) and FanDuel (4.2 million daily users) maintain dominance but don't view prediction markets as cannibalization threats, seeing opportunity in states without legalized sports betting.