What the US Jobs report means for the Fed

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | February 11, 2026 at 05:16 PM UTC
Neutral 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • US annual benchmark revision subtracts 862,000 jobs, with a total downward revision of over a million jobs by December of last year.
  • January nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 month-over-month, exceeding the estimated +65,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down.
  • The Fed was aware of the benchmark revisions, and while recent numbers are positive, underlying dynamics suggest a 'very tough job market' with slowing wage growth and drifting unemployment.

AI Summary

The discussion focuses on the US January jobs report and significant annual benchmark revisions. While January's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, substantial downward revisions to past job growth, totaling over a million jobs, suggest a weaker underlying labor market. The Fed was aware of these revisions, and the speaker highlights ongoing tensions between labor demand and supply, despite the possibility of a soft landing.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Neutral 95%