KG: Brace for Market Fade After Nonfarm Payrolls, Crude's Path to $75

• January jobs report exceeded expectations with 130K non-farm payrolls (vs. 66K est.) and a 4.3% unemployment rate (vs. 4.4% est.), alongside higher average hourly earnings.
• Underlying data, including seasonality and birth-death model adjustments, suggests potential weakness, leading to a cautious market reaction and a possible 'fade' in initial gains.
• Fed rate cut expectations are being delayed, with July now being priced for the first 25 basis point cut, impacting bond yields and the dollar.
• Crude oil is exhibiting a bullish technical setup, supported by geopolitical risks and the EIA's view that OPEC will not significantly raise production, potentially targeting $75.

The January jobs report, while strong on the headline, presents underlying nuances and potential weaknesses, leading to a possible market fade. This data, coupled with less dovish Fed remarks, is pushing back rate cut expectations to potentially July. Meanwhile, crude oil is showing a bullish technical setup and is supported by geopolitical risks and EIA outlook, with a potential to reach $75.