Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Fed Cut Bets Lift US Futures

• Economists forecast US average hourly earnings growth to slow to 3.6% year-on-year in January from 3.8% in December, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.4% while labor participation drops to 62.3%.
• Dow Jones E-mini futures climbed 117 points, Nasdaq 100 E-mini rose 106 points, and S&P 500 E-mini gained 21 points during Asian trading hours.
• Key risks to the bullish outlook include potential Bank of Japan hawkishness (neutral rate of 1.5%-2.5%) that could trigger yen carry trade unwinding, similar to mid-2024 market disruptions.

Market Summary: US Futures Rise on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Key Market Movements

US stock futures advanced in Asian trading on February 11, 2026, with the Dow Jones E-mini climbing 117 points, Nasdaq 100 E-mini rising 106 points, and S&P 500 E-mini gaining 21 points. Regional markets followed suit, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 0.23% and Australia's ASX200 rallying 1.47%.

Main Drivers

Market focus centers on the delayed US jobs report due Wednesday, with economists forecasting average hourly earnings growth to moderate to 3.6% year-over-year (down from 3.8%), while unemployment is expected to hold at 4.4%. The participation rate is projected to decline from 62.4% to 62.3%. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett indicated near-term labor market weakness, fueling expectations for an H1 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut.

China's January inflation data showed annual inflation cooling to 0.2% from 0.8%, though producer prices improved, declining only 1.4% versus December's 1.9% drop, suggesting better demand conditions.

Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini trades below its 50-day EMA but above its 200-day EMA, indicating near-term bearishness but longer-term strength. Both Dow Jones and S&P 500 E-minis remain above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, maintaining bullish bias. Key resistance levels include 50,611 for Dow Jones and the 50-day EMA at 25,474 for Nasdaq 100.

Risks

Potential headwinds include escalating geopolitical tensions, hawkish Bank of Japan signals that could trigger yen carry trade unwinding, disappointing earnings from companies like McDonald's, or Fed pushback on rate cut expectations.