What an Era of Jobless Growth Means for the US Economy
Bloomberg Markets and Finance
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February 10, 2026 at 03:15 PM UTC
Neutral
95% Confidence
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Key Points
- Growth in 2026 is expected to be 'jobless growth', driven by capex and government spending, not requiring significant job growth.
- Donald states this growth is 'for markets, not for the people' and warns against viewing high growth numbers as a 'panacea' for all economic issues.
- The 'break-even employment number' (jobs needed to keep unemployment steady) is estimated around 40,000 and declining, suggesting slower job growth could still lead to lower unemployment.
AI Summary
Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, discusses 'jobless growth' for the US economy in 2026, driven by capital expenditure and government spending rather than significant job creation. She warns that while markets may see growth, it may not translate to widespread benefits for the people, emphasizing a potential disconnect between economic growth and employment figures.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 95% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 95% |