Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Overnight Pullback as Traders Await US Data

• White House economic advisor warned of potential near-term weakness in labor market data, though bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut remain supportive of equity markets
• US retail sales for December are expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, with earnings from consumer-focused companies Coca-Cola and Ford providing additional insights into demand trends
• Technical indicators show Nasdaq 100 E-mini trading below its 50-day EMA but above 200-day EMA, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 E-mini remain above both EMAs, signaling mixed near-term but bullish longer-term outlook

Market Summary: US Futures Pull Back Ahead of Key Data

Key Movements

US stock futures retreated during Asian trading on February 10, 2026, with the Nasdaq 100 E-mini declining 57 points, S&P 500 E-mini down 7 points, and Dow Jones E-mini slipping 5 points. This partially reversed the previous session's gains as traders adopted a cautious stance.

Critical Data and Earnings

Markets are focused on December retail sales data, with economists forecasting a 0.4% month-on-month increase (down from 0.6% in November). Key earnings releases from Coca-Cola (KO) and Ford Motor Company (F) will provide crucial insights into US consumer demand and economic health. FOMC voting members Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak, potentially offering guidance on rate policy.

Economic Concerns

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett warned of potential near-term weakness in labor market data, citing productivity gains and immigration policy impacts. Recent JOLT job openings data indicated weaker labor demand, which could dampen wage growth and consumer spending—a concern given that private consumption represents approximately 65% of US GDP.

Market Outlook

Despite the pullback, growing expectations for an H1 2026 Fed rate cut continue supporting the medium-term bullish outlook for US equity futures. Technical analysis shows the Nasdaq 100 E-mini trading below its 50-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA, suggesting near-term bearishness but longer-term bullishness. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 remain above both EMAs, indicating overall bullish sentiment.

Key Risks

Potential headwinds include escalating geopolitical tensions, hawkish Bank of Japan policy (raising neutral rates to 1.5%-2.5%), yen carry trade unwind risks, and disappointing economic data or corporate earnings.