U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors await busy week of economic data

• The delayed January jobs report, now scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to show 60,000 jobs added versus 50,000 in December, with unemployment forecast to hold at 4.4%
• Key data releases include December retail sales (Tuesday), January nonfarm payrolls (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday), and January CPI (Friday)
• The 2-year yield rose 1 basis point to 4.874% and the 5-year note yield increased over 1 basis point to 3.514%

Summary:

U.S. Treasury yields rose at the start of the week as investors prepared for a heavy slate of economic data releases, many delayed by the recent partial government shutdown.

Key Market Movements:

• 10-year Treasury yield: up 2+ basis points to 4.231%
• 2-year yield: up 1 basis point to 4.874%
• 30-year note yield: up 1+ basis point to 3.514%

Upcoming Economic Data:

The week's highlight is the January jobs report, originally scheduled for the previous Friday but now set for Wednesday morning release. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast:

• Job gains: 60,000 (vs. 50,000 in December)
• Unemployment rate: expected to hold steady at 4.4%

Additional data releases include:

• Tuesday: December retail sales
• Thursday: Weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: January Consumer Price Index (CPI), also delayed by the shutdown

Market Implications:

The concentrated release of delayed economic indicators will provide investors with crucial insights into the U.S. economy's health, particularly labor market conditions and inflation trends. The jobs report and CPI data will be especially significant for gauging Federal Reserve policy direction. The modest uptick in Treasury yields suggests investors are positioning ahead of these releases, which could influence monetary policy expectations and broader market sentiment. The sequential data drops across the week will likely drive increased volatility in fixed income markets as traders digest multiple key economic indicators in compressed timeframe.