Trump predicting 100K on Dow by time he leaves office, claims he was 'right about everything'

Fox Business | February 09, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
Neutral 82% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • The Dow closed past 50,000 on Friday, which Trump says is three years ahead of schedule based on what 'experts' predicted for the end of his term
  • A study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that about 96% of tariff costs have been absorbed by American consumers and businesses rather than foreign exporters
  • Trump's comments come as the Supreme Court is expected to decide on a high-profile case challenging the constitutionality of his sweeping tariff powers

AI Summary

Summary:

President Trump predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 100,000 by the end of his term in January 2029, following the index's historic close above 50,000 for the first time on Friday. In a Truth Social post, Trump credited tariffs for driving "record stock market and national security," claiming he was "right about everything."

Key Data Points:

  • Dow milestone: Closed above 50,000 for first time (Friday)
  • Trump's target: 100,000 by January 2029
  • Current achievement: Three years ahead of his originally stated schedule

Market Context:

Trump emphasized his tariff policies as a driver of market gains, though this claim faces scrutiny. A study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found approximately 96% of tariff costs are absorbed by American consumers and businesses rather than foreign exporters, contradicting the administration's stated goals.

Implications:

The president's remarks come as the Supreme Court deliberates a high-profile case challenging the constitutionality of his sweeping tariff authority. Trump specifically called on the Court to "watch" his comments, suggesting potential influence on the pending decision.

Trump also positioned the market performance as a political wedge issue ahead of midterm elections, warning that "Democrats will CRASH the Economy." The bold 100,000 prediction represents a 100% increase from current levels over the next four years—an ambitious target requiring sustained annual growth rates that exceed historical averages.

Sectors Affected: Broad market indices, consumer goods, businesses impacted by tariff costs.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 85%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 68%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Neutral 82%