Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Steady as Earnings and US PMI Data Take Focus

• Japanese Services PMI rose from 51.6 to 53.7 in January, signaling strong economic momentum and a potentially more hawkish Bank of Japan policy stance, though yen weakness continued to support US risk assets.
• US ISM Services PMI is expected to decline from 54.4 to 53.5, with the Prices PMI forecast at 64.0 (down from 64.3), which could influence market expectations for an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Technical levels show Nasdaq 100 trading below its 50-day EMA but above 200-day EMA, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 remain above both EMAs, indicating mixed near-term but positive longer-term outlooks.

Market Summary: US Futures Stabilize Ahead of PMI Data and Earnings

Date: February 4, 2026

Key Market Movements

US stock futures edged higher during Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering from the previous day's sell-off. The Dow Jones E-mini gained 38 points, while Nasdaq 100 E-mini and S&P 500 E-mini advanced 2 and 3 points respectively. USD/JPY climbed 0.27% to 156.125, supporting demand for US risk assets despite yen weakness.

Major Indices and Technical Levels

Dow Jones: Trading above 50-day and 200-day EMAs (bullish bias)

• Resistance: 49,901 (January 13 high), then 50,000
• Support: 49,000, then 48,689 (50-day EMA)

Nasdaq 100: Below 50-day EMA but above 200-day EMA (bearish near-term, bullish longer-term)

• Resistance: 25,563 (50-day EMA), 26,000
• Support: 25,000, then 24,500

S&P 500: Above both EMAs (bullish)

• Resistance: 7,036, then 7,500
• Support: 6,907 (50-day EMA), then 6,500

Economic Data in Focus

Japanese S&P Global Services PMI rose to 53.7 in January from 51.6 in December, signaling strong economic momentum and supporting a hawkish Bank of Japan stance. US ISM Services PMI expected to decline from 54.4 to 53.5, while ISM Prices PMI forecast to ease from 64.3 to 64.0.

Market Outlook

The cautiously bullish outlook stems from expectations of H1 2026 Fed rate cuts, robust Q4 earnings (Amazon.com results pending), and resilient US economic data. However, risks include AI sector concerns, fading rate cut expectations, potential yen carry trade unwind, and geopolitical tensions. Fed speakers' commentary will provide