Inside the US-India Trade Deal

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | February 03, 2026 at 02:46 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • The US-India trade deal, including reduced tariffs on Indian goods, is seen as a 'big boost' for Indian capital markets and the rupee, offering enhanced access to the US consumption market.
  • The trade deal and recent budget announcements are expected to provide an 'upside' to India's growth estimates, potentially pushing it closer to 7.4% or higher.
  • Key sectors like electronics, pharma, chemical, tourism, and hospitality are poised to benefit from customs duty reductions, infrastructure investments, and other budget-related incentives.
  • Policy reforms, including labor code notification and support for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), are crucial for long-term job creation and boosting India's overall economic competitiveness.
  • While global geopolitical situations and financial market meltdowns remain external risks, India's sound macro fundamentals are expected to attract foreign investors, reversing previous exits.

AI Summary

India's Chief Economic Advisor, V. Anantha Nageswaran, expresses strong optimism about the US-India trade deal and the recent Indian budget. He anticipates a significant boost to India's economic growth, potentially exceeding 7.4%, driven by reduced US tariffs, increased market access, and strategic policy reforms. These measures are expected to attract capital flows, enhance competitiveness, and foster job creation across key sectors.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%