Deals and delays

Reuters | February 03, 2026 at 12:22 PM UTC

Bullish 84% Confidence Unanimous Agreement

Key Points

U.S. manufacturing expanded in January per ISM survey, complicating the Fed's easing plans and interest rate outlook
Gold surged over 5% on Tuesday, tracking for its largest single-day gain since 2008 after recent precious metals volatility
India's rupee saw its biggest one-day boost in seven years following the U.S.-India trade deal, with Indian stock indexes jumping over 2%

AI Summary

Market Summary: Deals and Delays

Key Market Movements

U.S. equities closed higher Monday despite commodity selloffs, with the S&P 500 gaining on tech strength. Alphabet rose 1.9% and Amazon 1.5% ahead of earnings reports Wednesday and Thursday. European markets followed suit, with the STOXX 600 up 1% reaching a new record high on financial and healthcare gains.

Major Developments

U.S. Manufacturing: January ISM survey showed factory activity expanding sharply, likely dampening Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.

U.S.-India Trade Deal: President Trump announced an agreement reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. In exchange, India will cease Russian oil purchases and buy from the U.S. and Venezuela instead. The Indian rupee surged in its biggest one-day gain in seven years, while stock indexes jumped over 2%.

SpaceX-AI Integration: Elon Musk announced SpaceX has consolidated space and AI operations, supporting expansion plans against AI competitors.

Commodities

Gold surged over 5% Tuesday, on track for its largest one-day gain since 2008, following recent volatility. Oil fell more than 4% Monday on potential U.S.-Iran de-escalation, with nuclear talks scheduled Friday in Turkey.

Central Bank Actions

Australia's Reserve Bank raised rates 25 basis points for the first time in two years, warning inflation remains elevated. The Australian dollar and bond yields climbed following the announcement.

Data Delays

Government shutdown postponed JOLTS data and January employment report, though lawmakers are negotiating brief funding resolution.

Upcoming Earnings: AMD, Supermicro, PepsiCo, Pfizer, PayPal, Amgen, Merck, and Mondelez report today.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model	Sentiment	Confidence
GPT-5-mini	Bullish	80%
Reasoning: Overall tone is positive — major equity indexes are hitting record highs and an upbeat earnings season (led by tech/AI) is keeping risk appetite high, despite mixed signals from commodities and a firmer manufacturing read that could delay Fed easing.
Claude 4.5 Haiku	Bullish	78%
Reasoning: Article highlights strong equity market performance (S&P 500 higher, STOXX 600 at record highs), positive manufacturing data (ISM expansion), robust earnings season, and significant geopolitical deal (US-India trade agreement benefiting markets). Gold surging 5% and broad-based gains across tech, healthcare, and financial sectors support bullish tone.
Gemini 2.5 Flash	Bullish	95%
Reasoning: The article highlights strong U.S. manufacturing activity, robust equity performance across major markets, an ongoing upbeat earnings season, and a significant U.S.-India trade deal. While Fed easing expectations are tempered, this is due to economic strength, and the government shutdown is expected to be brief.
Consensus	Bullish	84%

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Article Details

News ID: 3506508
Source: Reuters
Analyzed: 21 days ago

Sentiment Confidence

Average Confidence 84%

High confidence in sentiment