Investors Hunt for Proof AI Delivering Productivity Gains

• The US is creating a strategic reserve of rare earth minerals to enhance supply chain resilience, especially following China's export control measures.
• 2026 is identified as a critical year for AI valuations, which need to demonstrate significant, discontinuous productivity gains to be sustainable.
• Investors are weighing the risks of 'circular deals' (e.g., Nvidia investing in OpenAI), which could artificially bolster revenue numbers if genuine ROI from AI does not materialize.

The discussion focuses on the US building a strategic reserve of rare earth minerals to bolster supply chain resilience, particularly in the digital economy. A critical test for AI valuations is anticipated in 2026, requiring tangible productivity gains to justify current market optimism. Concerns are raised about the risks of capital misallocation and the need for clear ROI from AI investments.