Why Gold Still May Hit $6,000; Bitcoin Tests Trump 2.0 Low

• Gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,786 Monday after peaking at $5,613 Thursday; silver bounced 4.5% to $82.09 from a peak above $121, with both metals still up 9% and 15% year-to-date respectively
• Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman initially pressured precious metals, but Deutsche Bank views his policy stance as 'less hawkish than first impressions' and notes current conditions differ from past sell-offs with dollar depreciation expected
• Bitcoin fell to $74,675 (lowest since Trump's election) while Strategy (MSTR) stock dropped 4.5% to 143.03, facing potential exclusion from MSCI indexes and diminishing firepower for bitcoin purchases as its stock premium narrows

Market Summary: Gold, Bitcoin, and Precious Metals Analysis

Key Price Movements:

Gold futures recovered modestly to $4,786/oz Monday morning after peaking at $5,613 Thursday, maintaining a 9% year-to-date gain. Silver bounced 4.5% to $82.09/oz from Thursday's peak above $121, up 15% YTD. Bitcoin rebounded to $78,373 after testing a low of $74,675—its lowest level since Trump's election—while MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock fell 4.5% to 143.03, its weakest since September 2024.

Market Drivers:

Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6,000/oz gold price target, arguing current conditions differ fundamentally from previous sell-offs in 1980 and 2013. Analysts expect dollar depreciation, citing the U.S. current account deficit exceeding 4% of GDP, contrasting with dollar appreciation that triggered past gold declines. The firm notes institutional investors and central banks continue signaling multiyear diversification away from dollar-denominated assets.

Fed Leadership Impact:

Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed chairman triggered initial market stabilization. While Warsh established hawkish credentials as Fed governor (2006-2011), he's since advocated lower rates aligned with Trump's views. Deutsche Bank suggests his impact "may be less hawkish than first impressions," though regulatory changes would be needed for meaningful policy shifts.

Bitcoin Concerns:

MicroStrategy faces mounting pressure as MSCI considers banning digital treasury firms from global indexes. The company may exhaust firepower for bitcoin purchases as MSTR stock loses its premium to underlying bitcoin holdings, creating additional downside risks for both the stock and cryptocurrency.

Market Implications:

Precious metals' fundamental drivers remain intact despite volatility, with institutional accumulation continuing and no clear upper bound on gold's reserve allocation potential.