Stocks care about nominal numbers like earnings

Yahoo Finance | January 31, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Stocks prioritize nominal numbers, such as earnings and nominal GDP, over real (inflation-adjusted) GDP figures.
  • An 8-10% nominal GDP growth is anticipated for the first half of the year.
  • This nominal growth is expected to drive 8-10% earnings growth for the average company, which is considered a positive outlook.

AI Summary

The Chief Investment Officer of Horizon Investments argues that stocks primarily react to nominal numbers like earnings and nominal GDP growth, rather than real GDP. He projects 8-10% nominal GDP growth for the first half of the year, which he believes will lead to strong earnings growth for companies, deeming it 'pretty darn good'.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%