Exxon CEO: Venezuela must embrace democracy for viable oil investment

CNBC | January 30, 2026 at 02:46 PM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Exxon exited Venezuela in 2007 after asset nationalization and has billions in outstanding claims, with Woods emphasizing the company cannot work with governments that don't uphold contract sanctity
  • Trump told oil CEOs his administration will not force Venezuela to pay claims from 2007, saying 'that was their fault' under a different president
  • Chevron remains the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela under special Treasury license and says it can increase production over the next 18-24 months

AI Summary

Summary: Exxon CEO on Venezuela Oil Investment Requirements

Key Development: ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods stated that Venezuela must transition to democratic government before the oil major will consider investing in the country's deteriorating oil infrastructure.

Critical Facts:

  • Woods told President Trump on January 9 that Venezuela is "uninvestable" in its current state, angering the president who threatened to exclude Exxon from future Venezuelan opportunities
  • Trump administration is seeking oil company investments to rebuild Venezuela's industry following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro on January 3
  • Exxon exited Venezuela in 2007 after asset nationalization and holds billions in outstanding claims against Caracas
  • Trump indicated his administration won't force Venezuela to settle past claims, stating "we're not going to look at what people lost in the past"

Investment Requirements: Woods outlined three priorities for Exxon's consideration: stabilizing the country, economic recovery from "decades of abuse," and transition to representative government.

Market Context:

  • Venezuela holds the world's largest crude oil reserves but infrastructure is severely damaged
  • Chevron remains the only U.S. major operating in Venezuela under Treasury Department license, projecting production increases over 18-24 months
  • Current weak oil prices (steepest annual loss since 2020) complicate infrastructure investment economics due to global crude surplus

Company Performance: Exxon reported Q4 earnings beating estimates despite lower year-over-year profit and revenue. The company achieved its highest full-year production in 40+ years at 4.7 million barrels per day, with record output from Permian Basin and Guyana assets.

Political Uncertainty: The Trump administration's cooperation with Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez, a regime insider, raises concerns about genuine democratic transition.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 68%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 80%
Consensus Bearish 76%