Irish retail sales post first annual decline in nine months in December

Reuters | January 28, 2026 at 11:55 AM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Month-over-month sales fell 0.4% from November to December, or 0.8% when excluding motor traders
  • The decline ends an eight-month streak of positive annual growth that lasted through November 2025
  • The dramatic swing from 2.1% annual growth in November to a 0.1% decline in December suggests weakening consumer confidence or seasonal factors

AI Summary

Summary: Irish Retail Sales Decline in December 2025

Key Figures:

Ireland's retail sales volumes fell 0.1% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the first annual decline in nine months, according to Central Statistics Office data released January 28, 2026. This represents a sharp reversal from the revised 2.1% annual growth recorded in November.

Monthly Performance:

  • Month-on-month sales declined 0.4% from November to December
  • Excluding motor traders, the monthly decline was steeper at 0.8%

Market Implications:

The dramatic shift from 2.1% growth to a 0.1% contraction within a single month signals potential weakness in Irish consumer spending entering 2026. The data suggests December's holiday shopping period underperformed expectations, with particularly notable weakness in non-automotive retail sectors.

The decline breaks a nine-month streak of positive year-over-year growth, raising concerns about consumer confidence and economic momentum in Ireland. The steeper 0.8% drop when excluding motor sales indicates broad-based weakness across general retail categories rather than being concentrated in a single sector.

Context:

This marks a significant cooling in Ireland's retail sector, which had shown resilience through much of 2025. The timing of the decline during the traditionally strong December shopping season is particularly noteworthy and may warrant closer monitoring of Irish consumer spending trends and broader economic indicators in early 2026.

Investors and traders should watch for potential impacts on Irish retail stocks and consumer-facing companies, as well as implications for Ireland's GDP growth forecasts.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 70%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 76%