ASML Reports Record Orders and Strong 2026 Outlook Amid AI Surge

• Q4 bookings reached a record 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion), vastly exceeding the 6.32 billion euro analyst estimate, driven by AI demand and memory chipmakers expanding capacity
• 2026 revenue guidance of 34-39 billion euros implies at least 20% growth versus 2024, with EUV machine sales expected to 'significantly go up' as customers invest in advanced chip production
• China revenue is projected to drop to 20% of total sales in 2026 from 33% in 2025 due to export restrictions, while the company plans net headcount reduction of 1,700 positions mainly in the Netherlands

ASML Reports Record Q4 Orders, Strong 2026 Outlook Driven by AI Demand

Key Financial Results (Q4 2025):

• Record bookings: €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion), nearly double analyst estimates of €6.32 billion
• Net sales: €9.7 billion vs. €9.6 billion expected
• Net profit: €2.84 billion vs. €3.01 billion expected
• Announced €12 billion share buyback program

2026 Guidance:

• Full-year revenue projected between €34-39 billion (midpoint exceeds analyst expectations of €35.1 billion)
• Represents at least 20% growth versus 2024
• Current quarter sales expected at €8.2-8.9 billion
• EUV machine revenue to "significantly increase" year-over-year

Market Drivers:

The Dutch chipmaking equipment manufacturer is benefiting from surging AI infrastructure demand. Major customer TSMC recently reported strong results, reinforcing expectations for continued semiconductor demand. A global memory chip shortage is driving capacity expansion by Samsung and SK Hynix, with analysts projecting SK Hynix alone will purchase 12 ASML extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines in 2026.

China Exposure:

China revenue expected to decline to 20% of total 2026 sales, down from 33% in 2025, due to export restrictions on advanced equipment.

Corporate Actions:

ASML announced layoffs affecting approximately 1,700 positions, primarily in the Netherlands and some in the U.S., to improve organizational agility.

Market Implications:

The record orders signal robust semiconductor industry health driven by AI demand. ASML's outlook suggests sustained capital expenditure by chipmakers, supporting the broader semiconductor equipment sector and validating continued AI infrastructure investment.