India and EU have reached a trade deal, here's what it means for the US and markets

• EU-India trade deal signifies a shift towards a multi-faceted global trade landscape, reducing dependency on the US.
• Markets are adjusting to US trade policy volatility, with tariffs having less impact than anticipated due to strong US profit margins and inconsistent follow-through on threats.
• Big Tech earnings season is critical, with investors focusing on AI strategies, balance sheet strength, cash flows, and AI capital expenditure amidst stretched valuations.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on pause, but potential rate cuts could emerge mid-year if inflation continues to cool, with productivity gains from AI being a significant long-term consideration.

The discussion covers the EU-India trade deal, US trade policy volatility, upcoming Big Tech earnings, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The analyst suggests markets are adapting to trade threats and that strong earnings, particularly in tech, will be crucial. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady for now but may consider cuts later in the year, with AI's impact on productivity being a key factor.