This is what's in the India-EU trade deal — and who stands to gain
Key Points
- The EU expects to double exports to India by 2032, saving around 4 billion euros annually in tariff reductions, with India offering tariff cuts no other trading partner has received
- India will reduce car tariffs from 110% to 10% and eliminate duties on car parts over 5-10 years, while nearly eliminating tariffs on European machinery (22%), chemicals, and pharmaceuticals (11%)
- The deal could create 6-7 million jobs in India's textile sector alone and provides zero-duty access for $33 billion worth of Indian labor-intensive exports currently strained by U.S. tariffs
AI Summary
India-EU Trade Deal Summary
Key Agreement Terms
India and the European Union have finalized a free trade agreement eliminating or reducing tariffs on over 90% of goods traded between the regions, creating a free trade zone covering 2 billion people. The deal is expected to take effect in 2026.
Major Tariff Changes
European exports to India:
- Automotive tariffs reduced from 110% to 10%
- Car parts duties eliminated after 5-10 years
- Machinery tariffs reduced from up to 44%
- Chemicals from 22%, pharmaceuticals from 11%
- Agricultural products (wine, olive oil) see reduced/eliminated tariffs
Indian exports to EU:
- Zero tariffs on textiles, apparel, marine products, leather, footwear, chemicals, plastics, gems, and jewelry (previously 4%-26%)
- These labor-intensive sectors represent $33 billion in exports
Economic Impact
The EU projects the deal will:
- Double EU exports to India by 2032
- Reduce India's tariffs on European products by €4 billion ($4.7 billion) annually
- Create 6-7 million jobs in India's textile sector alone
India's bilateral trade with the EU totaled $136.54 billion in FY2025 ($75.85 billion exports, $60.68 billion imports).
Market Reaction
Indian automotive stocks declined on the news: Maruti Suzuki (-1.5%), Hyundai Motor India (-3.6%), Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.3%), and Tata Motors (-4.2%). Beverage companies United Breweries and United Spirits fell over 2%.
Strategic Context
The deal provides India alternative export markets amid 50% U.S. tariffs and occurs as U.S.-EU trade relations face uncertainty. India is the EU's ninth-largest trading partner (2.4% of bloc's trade), while the EU rivals the U.S. and China as India's largest trading partner.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 82% |