This is what's in the India-EU trade deal — and who stands to gain

CNBC | January 27, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC
Bullish 82% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • The EU expects to double exports to India by 2032, saving around 4 billion euros annually in tariff reductions, with India offering tariff cuts no other trading partner has received
  • India will reduce car tariffs from 110% to 10% and eliminate duties on car parts over 5-10 years, while nearly eliminating tariffs on European machinery (22%), chemicals, and pharmaceuticals (11%)
  • The deal could create 6-7 million jobs in India's textile sector alone and provides zero-duty access for $33 billion worth of Indian labor-intensive exports currently strained by U.S. tariffs

AI Summary

India-EU Trade Deal Summary

Key Agreement Terms

India and the European Union have finalized a free trade agreement eliminating or reducing tariffs on over 90% of goods traded between the regions, creating a free trade zone covering 2 billion people. The deal is expected to take effect in 2026.

Major Tariff Changes

European exports to India:

  • Automotive tariffs reduced from 110% to 10%
  • Car parts duties eliminated after 5-10 years
  • Machinery tariffs reduced from up to 44%
  • Chemicals from 22%, pharmaceuticals from 11%
  • Agricultural products (wine, olive oil) see reduced/eliminated tariffs

Indian exports to EU:

  • Zero tariffs on textiles, apparel, marine products, leather, footwear, chemicals, plastics, gems, and jewelry (previously 4%-26%)
  • These labor-intensive sectors represent $33 billion in exports

Economic Impact

The EU projects the deal will:

  • Double EU exports to India by 2032
  • Reduce India's tariffs on European products by €4 billion ($4.7 billion) annually
  • Create 6-7 million jobs in India's textile sector alone

India's bilateral trade with the EU totaled $136.54 billion in FY2025 ($75.85 billion exports, $60.68 billion imports).

Market Reaction

Indian automotive stocks declined on the news: Maruti Suzuki (-1.5%), Hyundai Motor India (-3.6%), Mahindra & Mahindra (-1.3%), and Tata Motors (-4.2%). Beverage companies United Breweries and United Spirits fell over 2%.

Strategic Context

The deal provides India alternative export markets amid 50% U.S. tariffs and occurs as U.S.-EU trade relations face uncertainty. India is the EU's ninth-largest trading partner (2.4% of bloc's trade), while the EU rivals the U.S. and China as India's largest trading partner.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 82%