After stock market roared in 2025, a 2026 ‘miracle' awaits for those with patience

• The S&P 500 has gained 86% since 2022's end, with 35 of 47 nations in MSCI's All-Country World Index hitting record highs in 2025, demonstrating the rally extends well beyond U.S. tech stocks
• Professional forecasters cluster around a median prediction of 9.6% U.S. stock gains for 2026, but Fisher argues this consensus rarely materializes and fundamentals support above-10% returns instead
• Midterm election years typically see choppy markets in the first three quarters, then stocks rise in 84% of Q4s (averaging 6.4% gains) as increased gridlock reduces legislative uncertainty

Summary

2026 Market Outlook: Moderate Gains Expected After Strong 2025

Financial analyst Ken Fisher forecasts continued but slower stock market gains in 2026, following a robust 2025 performance. Global stocks rose 21% in 2025, with European markets surging 35% and U.S. markets gaining 18%—exceeding Fisher's initial 15-25% prediction.

Key Projections:

• 2026 returns expected to exceed 10% but remain below the typical bull market average of 23% annualized
• Professional forecaster median predictions: 9.6% for U.S. stocks, 5.3% for Euro Stoxx 50
• Only 4 of 72 professional forecasts see U.S. stocks declining more than 1%

Market Fundamentals:

Fisher disputes concerns that the S&P 500's 86% surge since 2022 signals a tech bubble, noting that 35 of 47 nations in MSCI's All-Country World Index hit record highs in 2025—30 in Q4 alone. Five of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks actually lagged the S&P 500, demonstrating market breadth beyond technology.

Economic Indicators:

• U.S. loan growth has doubled year-over-year
• Eurozone loan growth at highest levels since early 2023
• Global yield curve remains steep, supporting lending activity

Political Factors:

Fisher anticipates a "midterm miracle," where initial political uncertainty creates choppy markets in early 2026, followed by Q4 gains averaging 6.4% as increased congressional gridlock reduces legislative uncertainty. Historically, stocks rise in 84% of midterm Q4s and 88% of subsequent Q1s and Q2s.

Investment Strategy: Europe presents better opportunities due to persistent pessimism, while patience is recommended for navigating early-year volatility.