Kazakhstan's Tengiz Oil Field Closed for Another Week, Sources Reveal

Reuters | January 20, 2026 at 02:29 PM UTC
Neutral 82% Confidence Split Agreement
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Key Points

  • TCO cancelled five CPC Blend crude cargoes (600,000-700,000 metric tons) for January-February shipments from the Black Sea terminal following the shutdown
  • Two other major Caspian fields are compensating: Kashagan increased output 28% to 197,000 barrels/day and Karachaganak rose 21% to 156,000 barrels/day in January
  • TCO is operated by Chevron (50% stake), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%), and Lukoil (5%), with most exports flowing through the CPC pipeline

AI Summary

Summary: Kazakhstan's Tengiz Oil Field Shutdown

Key Development:

Oil production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, one of the world's largest, has been shut down since Sunday, January 18, and could remain idle for another 7-10 days, potentially extending into February, according to industry sources.

Cause and Impact:

The shutdown follows a fire at two turbine transformers at the field's GTES-4 power station. Operator Tengizchevroil (TCO) cited power supply problems as the reason for halting production at both Tengiz and Korolevskoye fields. TCO has already cancelled five export cargoes of CPC Blend crude totaling 600,000-700,000 metric tons scheduled for January-February shipment from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal.

Key Stakeholders:

TCO is operated by a consortium led by Chevron (50% stake), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%), and Lukoil (5%).

Production Data:

  • Tengiz was producing 360,000 barrels per day (January 1-19 average)
  • Kazakhstan's overall crude production fell 35% in the first 12 days of January compared to December
  • Other fields are compensating: Kashagan increased output 28% to 197,000 bpd, while Karachaganak rose 21% to 156,000 bpd

Market Implications:

While other Kazakh producers have temporarily offset the Tengiz shutdown, sources warn that CPC pipeline throughput will begin declining within days. Kazakhstan exports most oil via CPC, though some crude is being redirected to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Germany's Druzhba pipeline due to existing infrastructure damage at the CPC marine terminal.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Consensus Neutral 82%