S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Trump Tariffs Threaten to Erase All 2026 US Stock Gains

FXEmpire | January 20, 2026 at 10:22 AM UTC
Bearish 92% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Trump's tariffs target Denmark, U.K., France, and Germany among eight European nations, with implementation set for February 1, 2026, escalating trade tensions and NATO concerns
  • The EU is prepared to deploy $93 billion in retaliatory tariffs and activate a 'trade bazooka' for collective defense against economic coercion
  • Trump's Wednesday speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 13:30 GMT will be closely watched, as his message could determine whether stock losses deepen or markets stabilize

AI Summary

Market Summary: Trump Tariffs Threaten US Stock Gains

Key Developments

President Trump announced 10% tariffs on imports from eight European countries, including Denmark, the UK, France, and Germany, effective February 1, 2026. The tariffs are part of escalating pressure on Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States.

Market Impact

US markets are poised for significant losses when cash trading resumes Tuesday following the MLK Day holiday:

  • E-mini Dow Futures: Down 716 points (-1.45%) to 48,831
  • E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Down 108.25 points (-1.55%) to 6,868.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures: Down 467.75 points (-1.82%) to 25,221.25

Based on current futures pricing, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are expected to turn negative for 2026, erasing all year-to-date gains. The Dow remains slightly positive but is likely to follow suit.

Broader Implications

The situation recalls April 2025's "Sell America" trade following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, when investors dumped US stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar. Market participants are divided between viewing this as a knee-jerk reaction versus the beginning of prolonged US-EU trade disruption.

The EU is preparing to deploy $93 billion in retaliatory tariffs and has readied a "trade bazooka" for collective defense against economic coercion. Experts warn the escalation could threaten NATO's stability.

Critical Event

All eyes turn to Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT, where his stance on Greenland and trade policy could determine whether markets face further losses or begin recovering.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 90%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 88%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 100%
Consensus Bearish 92%