Volatile Trading Week to End in Losses as Geopolitical Risks Weigh

Schaeffers Research | January 16, 2026 at 05:22 PM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Geopolitical risks included China advising customs agents to block Nvidia's H200 chips and tensions over Greenland with Denmark, while a U.S.-Taiwan trade deal provided some support
  • Chip sector activity surged following Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings report, with Nvidia remaining a favorite among investors and director purchases at Micron Technology boosting sentiment
  • Major corporate developments included Walmart reaching records on an Alphabet partnership deal, Allegiant Travel acquiring Sun Country Airlines, and AST SpaceMobile securing a Missile Defense Agency contract

AI Summary

Market Summary: Week of January 16, 2026

Market Performance:

U.S. markets experienced heightened volatility, with all three major indexes heading toward weekly losses despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 achieving fresh record highs during the week. The Nasdaq Composite faced particular pressure from geopolitical tensions.

Key Drivers:

  • The Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
  • President Trump called for a one-year moratorium on financial sector regulations
  • China's customs authorities advised against allowing Nvidia's H200 chips into the country, pressuring tech stocks
  • Geopolitical tensions involved U.S.-Denmark disputes over Greenland and various international trade issues

Major Company Developments:

*Technology Sector:*

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) crossed the $4 trillion market cap milestone, joining only Nvidia in this exclusive club
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported strong earnings, triggering a chip sector rally
  • Microsoft (MSFT) positioned for a significant move
  • HP (HPQ) fell to a five-year low following a Barclays downgrade
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) moved in opposite directions post-earnings

*M&A Activity:*

  • Walmart (WMT) stock reached records amid a partnership deal with Alphabet
  • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) announced acquisition of Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)
  • Netflix (NFLX) dropped after abandoning plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) secured a contract with the Missile Defense Agency

Week Ahead:

Markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Key data includes S&P flash PMI reports. Major earnings releases expected from United Airlines (UAL) and other companies.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Consensus Bearish 76%