Dow Jones: US Stocks Turn Choppy on Fed Uncertainty, Tech Stocks Mixed

FXEmpire | January 16, 2026 at 04:55 PM UTC
Neutral 81% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • Kevin Warsh surged ahead in prediction markets as the front-runner for Fed Chair after Trump's comments about keeping Hassett as National Economic Council Director
  • The U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement with Taiwanese chip and tech companies committing at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity investment
  • Sectors showed mixed performance with real estate leading (+0.79%) on lower mortgage rates while materials lagged (-0.79%); Honeywell (+2.39%) and American Express (+1.99%) supported the Dow while Salesforce (-1.95%) weighed on it

AI Summary

Market Summary: US Stocks Turn Choppy on Fed Chair Uncertainty

Market Performance:

US stock indices declined mid-session Friday, closing a volatile week on a down note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near its all-time high of 49,633.35 but pulled back, with key support levels at 48,743.20 and the 50-day moving average at 47,978.16.

Key Driver – Fed Chair Uncertainty:

Markets turned choppy after President Trump suggested he wants to keep Kevin Hassett in his current National Economic Council Director role rather than nominate him as Fed Chair. This uncertainty triggered profit-taking, with Kevin Warsh emerging as the front-runner in prediction markets for the Fed Chair position.

Weekly Volatility Factors:

The week was shaped by Trump-related headlines and Iran tensions, including presidential threats of military action that were later reversed. However, Thursday saw a significant recovery driven by stellar earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor and a major US-Taiwan trade agreement worth at least $250 billion in chip and tech production capacity investments in America.

Sector Performance:

Markets showed mixed sector performance with six sectors up and five down. Real estate led gains at +0.79%, benefiting from lower mortgage rates, followed by industrials, energy, financials, and technology. Materials was the biggest loser at -0.79%.

Individual Stocks:

Dow leaders included Honeywell International (+2.39%), American Express (+1.99%), and IBM (+1.75%). Laggards were Salesforce (-1.95%) and Merck (-1.66%).

Outlook:

Analysts expect continued two-sided choppy trading into the close as uncertainty persists.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 72%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Neutral 81%