Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China Approved with 25% Surcharge by Trump Administration
Key Points
- The H200 is not a specially downgraded export chip but a full Hopper-generation product also sold in U.S. markets, though it has been exceeded by Nvidia's newer Blackwell and Rubin generations
- Department of Commerce requirements include certifying sufficient U.S. supply, ensuring chips won't consume foundry capacity needed for advanced U.S.-bound chips, and mandatory independent U.S. testing before shipping
- Nvidia previously estimated the Chinese market could be worth significant revenue, with CEO Jensen Huang stating 'very high' interest from Chinese customers and supply chains reactivated for H200 production
AI Summary
Summary: Nvidia H200 China Sales Approved with 25% Government Surcharge
Key Development:
President Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday that the U.S. will approve sales of Nvidia's H200 AI chip to China, with the government taking a 25% cut of revenues. The announcement follows formal regulations published one day earlier by the Department of Commerce.
Product Details:
The H200 is part of Nvidia's Hopper generation and differs from previous China-targeted chips as it wasn't specifically designed or slowed down for export. Trump noted the H200's performance has been surpassed by two newer Nvidia generations—Blackwell and Rubin—characterizing it as "not the highest level, but a pretty good level."
Regulatory Requirements:
The Commerce Department filing stipulates exporters must certify sufficient U.S. supply, ensure chips won't consume foundry capacity needed for advanced U.S.-bound AI chips, verify adequate customer security procedures, and complete independent third-party testing before shipment. Shipments to China are capped at 50% of total U.S. customer volumes. AMD's MI325X chip is also mentioned in the filing.
Market Implications:
Nvidia previously estimated the Chinese market could be worth substantial revenue. CEO Jensen Huang reported "very high" interest from Chinese customers and confirmed production has resumed. He provided a $500 billion two-year AI chip sales forecast through end-2026, with potential China sales being additional. However, approval from Chinese regulators remains uncertain as China promotes domestic AI chip development for self-sufficiency.
Additional Measures:
The White House also imposed a 25% tariff on imports of chips like the H200 that must be imported to the U.S. for testing before China shipment.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 78% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 82% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 83% |