CNBC Daily Open: U.S. stocks dip and oil jumps as Iran, Fed independence concerns rise

CNBC | January 14, 2026 at 01:16 AM UTC
Bearish 84% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Trump's decision to cancel Iranian meetings suggests diplomatic approaches to curb Tehran's nuclear program may be off the table, pushing West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices higher during U.S. trading hours
  • December core CPI rose 0.2% monthly, coming in 0.1 percentage points below expectations, though strategists note inflation remains above target levels
  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that anything undermining Fed independence 'will raise inflation expectations and probably increase rates over time' as Trump called Powell 'crooked' and 'a jerk'

AI Summary

Market Summary: U.S. Stocks Decline Amid Iran Tensions and Fed Independence Concerns

Key Market Movements:

U.S. major indexes retreated despite December core CPI rising only 0.2% month-over-month and coming in 0.1 percentage points below expectations on both monthly and annual bases. Oil prices jumped during U.S. trading hours, with WTI crude and Brent benchmark gaining momentum.

Geopolitical Developments:

President Trump cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials and expressed support for protesters amid significant demonstrations in Iran. This decision suggests diplomatic approaches to curb Tehran's nuclear program may be abandoned, creating potential oil market instability given Iran's status as a major producer with influence over regional supply.

Federal Reserve Concerns:

Trump intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him "crooked," a "jerk," and suggesting he "will be gone soon." JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned such actions undermine Fed independence, potentially raising inflation expectations and increasing rates over time. Global central bankers rallied in defense of Powell.

Corporate News:

JPMorgan topped Q4 2025 earnings estimates. Apple and Google announced a multiyear AI collaboration, raising questions about stock implications. European renewable energy company Orsted surged 5.3% following favorable news on its wind project.

Other Developments:

Greenland's Prime Minister definitively stated "We choose Denmark" when pressed to choose between the U.S. and Denmark. PixVerse launched a real-time AI video generation tool enabling user-controlled video content creation.

Market Outlook:

Despite cooling inflation data, analyst Ellen Zentner noted inflation remains above target. Investors face multiple headwinds including geopolitical tensions, Fed independence concerns, and persistent inflation challenges.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 84%