December core consumer prices rose at a 2.6% annual rate, less than expected

CNBC | January 13, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
Bullish 91% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, both 0.1 percentage point below economist expectations
  • Headline CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 2.7% year-over-year, exactly matching consensus estimates
  • Federal Reserve officials consider core inflation a more reliable long-term gauge for monetary policy decisions

AI Summary

Summary: December CPI Report Shows Cooling Inflation

Key Data Points:

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually in December
  • Both core figures came in 0.1 percentage point below economist expectations
  • Headline CPI increased 0.3% monthly, with annual rate at 2.7%
  • Headline figures matched Dow Jones consensus estimates exactly

Market Implications:

The softer-than-expected core inflation data reinforces evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating in the U.S. economy. This development is significant as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy decisions on interest rates. Fed officials typically view core inflation as a more reliable indicator of long-term inflation trends, making these below-forecast readings particularly noteworthy.

The deceleration in core price growth suggests the Fed's previous rate-hiking campaign may be achieving its intended effect of cooling inflation without triggering a severe economic downturn. This could provide the central bank with greater flexibility in its monetary policy approach going forward.

Sector Focus:

The report covers broad consumer price movements across the U.S. economy, representing a comprehensive measure of inflation affecting households and businesses nationwide.

Market Context:

With core annual inflation at 2.6%, the reading remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but shows continued progress toward that goal. The below-consensus results may support market expectations for potential rate adjustments in coming months, likely bolstering risk assets and providing relief to rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and technology.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 90%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 88%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 95%
Consensus Bullish 91%