Trump's tariffs trigger rising rate of job layoffs inside supply chain: ASCM/CNBC survey

• Layoffs among supply chain managers doubled from 16% in April to 32% currently, as companies struggle to manage cost structures amid tariff pressures
• 65% of survey respondents reported supply chain cost increases of at least 10-15%, with 34% experiencing increases greater than 15%, creating major budget shocks
• Companies face 'dead money' tied up in customs bonds and administrative burdens that cannot be recovered even if tariffs are ruled illegal, with 56% of respondents concerned about a recession beginning in Q2

Summary: Trump Tariffs Drive Supply Chain Job Cuts and Rising Costs

President Trump's tariffs are causing significant disruption across U.S. supply chains, with layoffs doubling and operational costs surging, according to a joint survey by the Association for Supply Chain Management (ASCM) and CNBC.

Key Findings:

• Layoffs doubled: 32% of supply chain managers now report layoffs, up from 16% in April
• Cost increases: 65% of respondents reported at least 10-15% higher supply chain costs, with 34% experiencing increases exceeding 15%
• Survey details: 220+ supply chain professionals surveyed between December 15, 2025 and January 7, 2026

Financial Impact:

Beyond direct tariff payments, businesses face mounting ancillary costs. Customs bonds now require collateral equivalent to 10% of duties paid over a rolling 12-month period. Baby products company Lalo reported hundreds of thousands of dollars tied up in customs bonds—funds that earn no interest for 314 days and cannot be used for business operations or growth.

Market Implications:

ASCM CEO Abe Eshkenazi warns that even if the Supreme Court rules Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal and orders refunds, businesses cannot recover lost productivity, administrative burdens, or interest on loans taken to pay tariffs. Companies are operating in "constant firefighting mode" with shortened planning cycles, hindering long-term investment decisions.

Economic Outlook:

Sentiment among supply chain professionals is mixed: 38% negative, 35% positive, and 27% neutral. Notably, 56% fear a recession, with two-thirds of those predicting it could begin in Q2—creating uncertainty that further discourages capital investment.

The tariffs represent a comprehensive drag on the economy, affecting not just balance sheets but workforce stability and business viability across sectors.