European markets set to start the week on a somber note
Key Points
- U.K. and German indexes are forecast to open 0.13% lower, with Italy's index down 0.26%, as investors assess potential U.S. military strikes or other actions against Iran following violent crackdowns on protests
- The DOJ has opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his Senate testimony, which Powell called an attempt by Trump to influence central bank monetary policy
- Trump aides are reportedly scheduled to brief the president Tuesday on potential military, cyber, and economic measures against Iran, adding to market uncertainty
AI Summary
European Markets Face Negative Opening Amid Geopolitical and U.S. Political Tensions
European stocks are poised to open lower on Monday, with key indices showing modest declines. The U.K.'s index and Germany's DAX are expected to open 0.13% lower, France's market flat, and Italy's down 0.26%, according to IG data.
Key Concerns:
*Geopolitical Risk:* Markets are monitoring escalating tensions in Iran following violent crackdowns on widespread protests. U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly reviewing potential response options, including military strikes and non-military actions. Trump aides are scheduled to brief the president Tuesday on military, cyber, and economic measures.
*U.S. Political Turmoil:* U.S. stock futures declined overnight after the Department of Justice announced a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The probe relates to Powell's Senate Banking Committee testimony regarding Fed office building renovations. Powell confirmed the investigation in a Sunday evening video statement, characterizing it as an attempt by Trump to pressure the central bank and influence monetary policy. Powell stated he would not yield to such pressure, with his term as chair set to expire in May.
Market Outlook:
No major earnings releases or economic data are scheduled for Monday in Europe, suggesting investor focus will remain on these political and geopolitical developments. The dual pressures of Middle East instability and unprecedented U.S. central bank interference create a risk-off environment as the trading week begins.
The situation represents a notable escalation in tensions both internationally and within U.S. institutional frameworks, potentially impacting global market sentiment throughout the week.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 85% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bearish | 82% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 85% |