The December jobs report is due out Friday. Here's what it is expected to show

• Expected payroll growth of 73,000 would exceed the 55,000 average monthly gain seen over the prior 11 months of 2025, with unemployment rate half a percentage point above year-start levels
• Job growth has concentrated in health care and government sectors benefiting from fiscal policy, while three of the last six months saw net job losses
• Employers are focusing on retention over aggressive hiring, investing in upskilling and offering salary increases and bonuses to keep existing staff

December Jobs Report Preview: Modest Growth Expected

Key Expectations

The December jobs report, scheduled for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show modest labor market improvement. According to Dow Jones consensus:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +73,000 jobs
• Unemployment rate: 4.5% (down slightly from previous month)

Market Context

The projected 73,000 gain would represent improvement from 2025's average monthly increase of 55,000 jobs over the prior 11 months. However, the unemployment rate remains 0.5 percentage points higher than early 2025 levels. The labor market showed volatility throughout 2025, with monthly changes ranging from a peak gain of 158,000 (April) to a loss of 105,000 (October), including three months of net job losses in the last six months.

Sector Trends

Job growth has concentrated primarily in:

• Healthcare
• Government positions (both benefiting from expansionary fiscal policy)

Companies are focusing on employee retention rather than aggressive hiring, offering salary increases, bonuses, and upskilling/reskilling programs to retain existing workers.

Economic Implications

Economists characterize the 2026 outlook as "stable" rather than stellar, with cautious optimism prevailing. Federal Reserve policymakers have cited labor market concerns as justification for recent interest rate cuts, with markets expecting further Fed intervention if conditions weaken. However, uncertainty remains regarding data accuracy due to recent government shutdown gaps, with some economists suggesting February will provide the first "clean" report.

The consensus view: a resilient but bumpy labor market ahead, neither "too hot nor too cold."