Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Update: New ATHs Are on Tap

• Short-term target of approximately 26,825 for the current wave, followed by a pullback to 26,155, then a rally to 27,225 for the final wave
• Critical support levels range from 25,639 down to 23,854, with each break increasing the probability by 20% that the uptrend has ended
• A significant bear market similar to 2022 is expected after the current bull wave completes in April 2026, before the next multi-year rally begins

Summary

Market Overview:

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is positioned for continued bullish momentum through April 2026, according to Elliott Wave technical analysis by FXEmpire. The index is currently trading in the 25,700s and advancing in a "3rd of a 3rd wave" pattern, with new all-time highs (ATHs) anticipated.

Key Technical Levels:

• November 2025 low: 23,854 (critical support level)
• December 10 high: 25,835
• December bottom: 24,647 (Wave-ii)
• December 26 rally: 25,716 (Wave-1)
• January 2 low: 25,086 (Wave-2)

Price Targets:

The analysis projects the index will reach approximately:

• 26,825 for Wave-3
• 26,155 for Wave-4 (pullback)
• 27,225 for Wave-5
• Alternative scenario: 27,860 in an overlapping ending diagonal pattern

Warning Levels for Bulls:

Sequential support levels at 25,639, 25,428, 25,086, 24,647, and 23,854. Each break below these thresholds increases odds by 20% that the uptrend has ended.

Critical Caveat:

The analyst warns that once the green Wave-5 completes (expected around April 2026), a "2022-like bear market" is anticipated before the next multi-year rally begins. This suggests a significant correction may follow the current bullish phase, despite near-term optimism for new highs.

The forecast maintains validity as long as the November 21 low of 23,854 holds, confirming the bull market remains intact according to Elliott Wave theory combined with Armstrong Pi-cycle analysis.