Morning Bid: Swiftly moving on

• U.S. December ISM manufacturing index fell below 48 to its lowest level since October 2024, with declining order backlogs suggesting potential employment risks ahead
• Markets showed remarkable calm following Maduro's capture, with the VIX volatility index near rock-bottom levels and MSCI's world stocks benchmark hitting its second record high of 2025
• Expectations that reviving Venezuela's oil industry would require years and billions of dollars dampened initial concerns about crude oil oversupply

Market Summary: Morning Bid - Swiftly Moving On

Key Market Developments

Global stocks continue their rally to record highs, with MSCI's world stocks benchmark hitting its second peak of 2025. However, Wall Street futures and the dollar showed weakness Monday morning, suggesting potential near-term volatility.

Venezuela Situation

Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges following his capture by President Trump's administration. Despite initial market jitters, currency markets showed minimal lasting impact within 72 hours. The dollar's safe-haven bid proved short-lived as signs of White House dialogue with Maduro's successor Delcy Rodríguez reduced military escalation concerns.

Initial expectations that Venezuelan oil would flood markets and depress prices have moderated, as reviving Venezuela's oil industry would require years and billions in investment that U.S. energy companies may be reluctant to provide. Oil prices have stabilized near last week's levels.

Economic Data

December ISM manufacturing index fell below 48, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since October 2024. Shrinking order backlogs signal potential inventory buildup and employment risks ahead, noted Fed official Neel Kashkari.

Technology Sector

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the company's next-generation chips are in "full production," delivering five times the AI computing power of previous models.

Market Positioning

The CBOE VIX (volatility index) remains near rock-bottom levels despite geopolitical uncertainty. Gold and silver continued modest gains. Traders await Friday's nonfarm payrolls data to assess potential Fed rate cut trajectories for 2025.